Revealed: The Iran War Is Going Far Worse Than Publicly Believed

30 House Seats Move Toward Democrats, and why I don't think Trump's assassination attempts were staged

Hey, Raw America family. Welcome to the Sunday Wrapup. I’m here with my cup of coffee, and sickeningly, Trump made himself the subject of the story, again.

Thank you for being a paid subscriber. This week, your support put Raw America on the stories corporate cable wouldn’t touch: Trump’s stonewalling of British police seeking Epstein files to prosecute Prince Andrew, and a Republican bill to deport leftists.

First, the Elephant in the Room

I hear this so often I think it needs to be addressed: I don’t believe Trump has staged attempts on his own life.

The quick and dirty: it’s hard to stage an event that takes place in public, especially today. Trump would have had to agree to be shot at with live fire in Butler, Pennsylvania (recall a volunteer firefighter was shot dead); bullets were caught on camera, including the angle; and two years have passed without a whistleblower, a leaked plan, or irregularities in forensic data.

Second, a staged assassination would have featured heavily in political campaign ads. If you orchestrate an assassination attempt to win an election, you ride that wave until November. You don’t let it fade.

While the fist-pump photo became iconic on its own, Trump didn’t focus on it himself. I expected a full-throated cri de coeur at his RNC acceptance speech four days later, but it went barely mentioned. He didn’t give interviews about it. There wasn’t a campaign documentary.

When pressed for details, Trump was vague or shifted the subject. Compare that to how he talks about things he wants to amplify, where he repeats talking points relentlessly for months or years.

Last night, I spoke to a Trump supporter who said he thought Trump was staging his own attacks. He said they always seem to happen when Trump’s poll numbers go sour.

This is the real through-line: Trump’s own supporters are now questioning his narrative. If you lie too often, people eventually assume everything is a lie.

The shooting changed the subject. Trump’s attacks on the press escaped scrutiny. A cowardly Washington Press corps dodged the cameras. Staged or not, people are moving on to the real stories.

Why The Iran War Is Going Far Worse Than Believed

I want to walk you through three stories that broke this week, because together they paint a picture the corporate press has been slow to assemble. One the Pentagon is actively trying to hide.

Yesterday, NBC News reported that Iranian strikes during Operation Epic Fury caused damage to American military bases that’s “far worse than publicly acknowledged,” with repair costs running into the billions. According to an assessment confirmed by US officials, Iran hit more than 100 targets across 11 US bases in seven Gulf countries: Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.

One detail is jaw-dropping: an Iranian F-5 fighter jet bombed Camp Buehring in Kuwait, despite the base having air defenses. It’s the first time in years an enemy fixed-wing aircraft has struck a US base.

The headquarters of the US Navy in Bahrain — the nerve center for Navy operations in the whole region — sustained serious damage. A runway at Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar was destroyed. Iran destroyed at least one fighter jet, more than a dozen MQ-9 Reaper drones, two MC-130 tankers, four helicopters, an E-3 Sentry surveillance plane, and at least two air defense systems.

And here’s what suggests a cover-up: the Trump administration asked private satellite companies to withhold imagery of the bases from the public. That request is still in place. GOP lawmakers are livid. “No one knows anything,” one GOP aide told NBC. “And it’s not for lack of asking. We have been asking for weeks and not getting specifics, even as the Pentagon is asking for a record-high budget.”

The Casualty Cover-Up

It gets worse. The Intercept‘s Nick Turse reported Wednesday that the Pentagon quietly scrubbed 15 wounded-in-action troops from the official tally on April 21 with no explanation, dropping the count from 428 to 413. Meanwhile, the Pentagon’s official 13 dead is missing at least one name: Major Sorffly Davius of the New York Army National Guard, who died on duty in Camp Buehring last month. A defense official called it “the definition of a cover-up.”

So we now have three concurrent cover-ups running in parallel: the damage to bases, the satellite imagery, and the casualty count.

Then on Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal dropped its own bomb. The US has burned through so many munitions in Iran that some administration officials now privately assess America couldn’t fully execute contingency plans to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion in the near term.

Since February, the US has fired more than 1,000 long-range Tomahawk missiles and as many as 2,000 critical air-defense missiles. A key think tank estimates we’ve expended roughly 27% of our Tomahawk inventory, nearly half of our SM-3 interceptors, half of our Patriot interceptors, and up to 80% of our Thaad interceptors.

Fully replacing those stockpiles could take up to six years. Six years is longer than the timeframe many analysts have warned about for a Taiwan crisis.

30 House Races Shift Towards Democrats

I want to end on hope, because there’s a real reason for it.

On Tuesday, Virginia voters approved a Democratic redistricting referendum that could net the party as many as four additional House seats. Five Virginia districts have already been shifted toward Democrats by the major forecasters.

Combined with California’s redistricting last year, Democrats are positioned to gain up to 10 new seats from redistricting alone. This narrows or closes the gap created when Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina redrew their maps for Trump.

Trump’s war is also collapsing his coalition. A CNN poll this month put disapproval of the Iran war near 70 percent. Trump fired his own Navy Secretary this week over the speed of shipbuilding; Tucker Carlson, Joe Rogan, and Ann Coulter have all openly broken with him on the war.

“I’ll be tormented for a long time by the fact that I played a role in getting Trump elected,” Carlson said. “And I want to say that I’m sorry for misleading people.”

The midterms are slipping out of MAGA’s hands. The Cook Political Report has shifted roughly 30 House races toward Democrats this year, including five more in Virginia this week alone.

Pope Leo XIV called Trump’s Iran threats “unacceptable” this month. It’s the sharpest public clash between the Vatican and a sitting American president in over two decades.

The country is paying attention. The press corps may not be doing its job, but the voters are doing theirs.

Why I Do This Every Morning

I built Raw Story because somebody had to say plainly what the corporate press wouldn’t: that George W. Bush lied us into a war and the networks played along until it was too late.

Two decades later, I’m watching corporate journalists fete a president who calls them treasonous, while the regulator reviewing their owner’s merger sits at the head table.

That is exactly why Raw America exists.

Thanks again for being a paid subscriber. Please share this with someone who needs to see what just happened in Washington. We really appreciate you getting the word out.

I’m so glad you’re in this fight with me. We’re in it to win it.

— John Byrne

Founder, Raw America and Raw Story