Good evening, and welcome to Raw America. I’m British Chris.
There are four stories that tell you pretty much everything you need to know about where America is right now. Insider trading at the highest levels of government, Republicans in open revolt against their own president, a war pushing oil past a hundred dollars a barrel, and the FBI digging into a conspiracy theory that its own boss invented. Buckle up.
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Now for the news.
Trump’s New DHS Pick Has a History of Very Convenient Stock Trades
Kristi Noem survived exactly two days of congressional hearings before she was done, partly because she refused to deny having an affair with her own aide, Corey Lewandowski. Her replacement is Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin: One of the biggest stock traders in the entire Senate.
Five days before U.S. forces launched their strike on Venezuela, Mullin bought significant positions in RTX Corp., Chevron, and ConocoPhillips. Five days later, the bombs fell.
By Monday, those three positions were up substantially. Conoco up 30 percent, Chevron 26 percent, RTX nearly 15. The total gains? Up to $35,000. That’s roughly six months of what the average American takes home.
Mullin was on the Senate Armed Services Committee. That committee gets classified briefings on military operations.
And then Iran happened. When markets reopened after the first weekend of bombing, RTX jumped five percent, ConocoPhillips four percent. He’d already bought those stocks.
Mullin went on CNBC afterwards and told viewers that once Venezuela stabilises, every major company is going to be rushing in, “because there’s a tremendous amount of opportunity for the company and for their shareholders.” He was talking about stocks he already owned.
This isn’t subtle. This isn’t even well hidden. And this is the man Trump wants running the Department of Homeland Security.
Republicans Fear Trump May Drown Out Their Midterm Message
House Republicans gathered at Trump’s golf resort in Miami for their annual policy retreat. They’re hoping to unite around an agenda that will help them survive the midterms. Polls are looking rough. Dozens of members have already announced they’re leaving. The majority is razor-thin. There’s genuine concern they won’t hold the House.
But their own president has now announced he won’t sign any legislation unless Republicans first pass sweeping voting restrictions, including strict limits on mail-in ballots and provisions targeting transgender athletes and children.
So the party trying to demonstrate it can govern is being held hostage by the person leading it.
Meanwhile, Trump’s war in Iran is sending oil prices through the roof, which is making voters even more anxious about costs. And Congress is still stuck on funding the Department of Homeland Security, which creates its own political headache given how central immigration has been to the Republican brand.
The voting restrictions already passed the House but it’s stalled in the Senate. The votes aren’t there. Meanwhile, Republicans are trying to pass bills addressing the cost of living.
But Trump wants the voting stuff first. And so everyone’s gathered at his golf club, trying to figure out how to govern while their president is blocking governance.
Recession Odds Climb as Oil Tops $100 a Barrel
Oil is above $100 a barrel for the first time since the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And prediction markets are starting to price in some serious economic pain.
On Kalshi, the market for a U.S. recession in 2026 jumped above 34 percent on Monday, its highest point since November. A week earlier it was sitting under 25 percent. That’s a big move.
The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Middle Eastern producers have cut output. And higher oil prices mean higher petrol prices, higher transport costs, higher prices for pretty much everything.
Kalshi bettors now see roughly a 60 percent chance that U.S. petrol prices exceed four dollars a gallon this month. The national average on Monday was $3.48. That gap could close fast.
Polymarket has a 31 percent chance of recession by the end of the year.
Economists have been warning for a while that if oil holds above $100, consumer spending gets squeezed, business confidence takes a hit, and the whole thing can spiral. Add that to the existing tariff disruptions and the market volatility that’s been grinding through the year, and you’ve got a genuinely worrying picture.
The war in Iran isn’t just a foreign policy story. It’s showing up in our wallets.
FBI Now Chasing Trump’s Pet Conspiracy Theory in a New State
This next one is extraordinary.
Trump’s FBI already raided an elections hub in Fulton County, Georgia, earlier this year. Now it’s moved to Arizona. The FBI has issued a federal grand jury subpoena to the Arizona state Senate, seeking records from the state’s 2020 election audit. Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen confirmed it himself on X.
That audit was conducted by a company called the Cyber Ninjas. It was a conspiracy-driven review of Maricopa County’s election results, ordered by Republicans who insisted the 2020 election had been stolen.
A 93-page rebuttal from Maricopa County’s election department found that the review was riddled with “faulty analysis, inaccurate claims, misleading conclusions,” and a fundamental misunderstanding of election law.
And now the FBI, under Trump, is subpoenaing records from that investigation.
The 2020 ballots in Maricopa County have already been destroyed anyway, in line with the state’s records retention laws. Whatever the FBI is looking for, it won’t find ballots.
What’s happening here is a sitting president using the FBI to legitimize a conspiracy theory that he himself spread. The people who certified the election, the people who ran the audits, the courts that threw out the challenges: all of them said he lost. He’s now pointing federal investigators at the machinery that contradicted him.
That’s not a law enforcement inquiry. That’s an egregious waste of tax dollars.
This work doesn’t happen in a vacuum. Raw America had reporters on the ground in Washington covering Iran War protests, Kristi Noem’s congressional testimony before she was pushed out, and the War Powers resolution fight in Congress. That kind of on-the-ground reporting costs real money and takes real people. None of it happens without your support. If you’re already a subscriber, thank you. If you’re not, please consider joining today. It matters more than you know.
I’m British Chris. Thanks for watching. We’ll see you tomorrow.
STORIES YOU MAY HAVE MISSED:
White House Quietly Panicking Over Oil Prices. After crude oil prices topped $100 a barrel over the weekend, aides in President Donald Trump’s administration are reportedly scrambling for solutions to bring prices back down. The administration is considering easing Jones Act restrictions to boost the flow of domestic oil, and even having the U.S. Treasury directly intervene in oil futures trading.
Oil Prices Threaten Key Plank of Republican Midterm Platform. The sharp rise in global energy prices is threatening to torpedo Republicans’ midterm hopes. A new analysis from the firm Evercore ISI found that all benefits to American households from last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act could be cancelled out by the surge in oil prices in response to the Iran war. Higher gas prices will not only impact the price Americans pay to fill their cars, but will also lead to an increase in cost of all consumer goods delivered by diesel-powered trucks.
Lindsey Graham Warns Saudi Arabia Will Face ‘Consequences’ for Not Supporting Iran War. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) questioned whether the U.S. should honor its commitment to supporting Saudi Arabian defense if the country doesn’t assist the U.S. military with operations in Iran. Graham wrote on X that “consequences will follow” if Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab nations don’t help the U.S. fight Iran.
Details of Hegseth’s $93 Billion Shopping Spree Revealed. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was found to have spent more than $93 billion last year on frivolous expenses including fruit baskets, a Steinway grand piano, more than $2 million for Alaskan king crab, and nearly $7 million on lobster tail. The Pentagon reportedly made the purchases in order to exhaust its congressionally appropriated funds before losing access to the money.
MAGA Congressman Tweets “Muslims Don’t Belong in American Society.” Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) attracted a wave of backlash after disparaging American Muslims and saying “pluralism is a lie.” Ogles has also repeatedly called for New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani to be deported. Bulwark editor Sam Stein said Ogles’ tweet was akin to “bigotry,” while former Ohio state senator Nina Turner called his remarks “disgusting.”
