Good morning. The war just got more complicated. And the justification for starting it may have just collapsed.
We are two days into Operation Epic Fury, Donald Trump’s war against Iran, and the news is coming fast and it is not good. Dead American service members, downed fighter jets, missiles raining across a dozen countries, and a body count in Iran now past 550 people. We also have a blockbuster admission from the Pentagon that may be the most important story of the week.
When a nation is rushed into war on claims that do not withstand scrutiny, it is not just foreign policy that is at stake but the very foundation of democratic self government. A republic cannot survive if truth is treated as expendable and Congress is sidelined when the bombs begin to fall.
You can bet the corporate networks, now being snapped up by Trump-aligned billionaires who are very comfortable with forever wars, will not be leading with it. Raw America is Raw Story and Really American’s people-powered answer to the MAGA and oligarch takeover of the press. As billionaires seize CBS and maneuver to take CNN, the launch of a new war makes truly independent journalism more urgent than at any moment in our lifetimes. Please become a paid subscriber to Raw America right now. This is the moment independent media either survives or doesn’t.
Two days ago, we sat down exclusively with retired Major General Paul Eaton, an Army commander during Operation Iraqi Freedom, for a conversation with Thom about what this war means and why it may already be constitutionally indefensible. We will keep bringing you the generals, the experts, and the truth-tellers directly, without a billionaire in the middle. That is the promise of Raw America.
The justification just fell apart
Here is the lead. Pentagon briefers told congressional staff on Sunday that Iran had no plans to preemptively strike U.S. forces or bases in the region. That is not coming from Iran. That is coming from the United States military, behind closed doors, to members of Congress.
Sources say the admission was confirmed by multiple people who attended the briefing, with one senior military official acknowledging flat out there was “no indication that Iran was preparing to preemptively strike U.S. bases.” The White House had spent Saturday claiming the U.S. attacked Iran because it received intelligence that Iran was preparing to hit American installations. That claim is now in serious trouble.
Trump also justified the war by claiming Iran was building missiles that “could soon reach the American homeland.” A Defense Intelligence Agency assessment published last year found Iran was years away from possessing intercontinental ballistic missiles, and sources say there was no intelligence suggesting Iran was even working on an ICBM program at the time of the strikes. Three separate sources confirmed Iran wasn’t interested in developing one, a point the country’s own Foreign Minister made publicly last week.
The Pentagon did point to Iran’s ballistic missile program and proxy forces as evidence of a threat. Sources noted this has been true for years and does not explain the urgency of launching strikes last Saturday. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faces the press Monday morning. This is the question he needs to answer, and it is worth watching closely, because the gap between what the White House said and what the Pentagon told Congress is not a small one.
If the stated cause for war dissolves under basic questioning, then we are staring at a constitutional crisis, not a military one. The power to declare war belongs to the people’s representatives, and when that power is bypassed through fear or distortion, democracy itself becomes collateral damage.
The war expands
Israel launched fresh strikes on Hezbollah in Beirut and southern Lebanon over the weekend. Sources say at least 31 people were killed and around 149 injured. This is the same Hezbollah that was battered by Israeli operations in 2024, with leader Hassan Nasrallah killed in September of that year and a ceasefire agreed to in November. That ceasefire is now effectively over, with Israel warning residents of 50 Lebanese villages to evacuate as tit-for-tat strikes resumed.
Iran has continued hitting U.S. allies across the region, including the UAE, Qatar, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The war Trump said he could end in “two or three days” is bleeding across an entire region with no clear boundary and, according to sources familiar with the congressional briefing, no explanation from the Pentagon on what happens in Iran when the bombs stop falling. Congress never authorized any of this. The American public opposed it nearly 50 percent to 21 percent in a recent poll. Nobody asked them.
Wars that begin without debate rarely end with clarity, and mission creep is the oldest trap in American foreign policy. When the public is opposed and Congress is silent, we are witnessing an erosion of the consent that gives our government its moral authority.
Jets down, pilots in car trunks
Three U.S. fighter jets were shot down in Kuwait, not by Iran, but by Kuwaiti air defenses in what Central Command called an “apparent friendly fire incident.” All six pilots ejected safely and were recovered. Video circulating widely online shows a man in a flight suit lying in the trunk of a car while bystanders stand around him. In the clip, people can be heard saying they arrived thinking it was an Iranian jet. It was American. The helmet visible in images appears to match the livery of the U.S. Air Force’s 335th Fighter Squadron out of Seymour Johnson Air Force Base in North Carolina.
The death toll in Iran has climbed past 555. Four U.S. military personnel have now been killed in total. Monday morning brought fresh explosions in the UAE, Bahrain, Israel, and Qatar, with smoke rising near the U.S. Embassy compound in Kuwait after an Iranian strike targeted the area shortly after the Trump administration warned Americans there to seek shelter.
Confusion on the battlefield is tragic, but confusion at the top is unforgivable. When strategy is driven by impulse instead of deliberation, it is young service members and innocent civilians who pay the price for political recklessness.
Graham wants Cuba next
On Sunday night, Lindsey Graham went on Fox News and declared Trump a better president than Ronald Reagan on foreign policy. “President Trump finished the job that President Reagan failed to do!” he said, with the enthusiasm of a man at a pep rally rather than someone watching a region burn. He then turned his attention to Cuba. “Cuba’s next,” he said. “Their days are numbered.”
An unnamed administration official told The Atlantic on Sunday that Trump is “feeling like, ‘I’m on a roll.’” In the middle of a war. This is what corporate media does with these moments. It cheers. Graham cheered. Fox aired it approvingly. Nobody on that network mentioned the 555 dead in Iran, the friendly fire incident over Kuwait, or the fact that the stated justification for the whole enterprise now appears to have been built on sand.
When war becomes a talking point and human lives are reduced to applause lines, we have crossed from statesmanship into spectacle. Democracies decline when leaders treat military force as a tool for personal momentum rather than a last resort guided by law and conscience.
Who bet on this war?
Six newly created accounts on prediction platform Polymarket made around $1 million in profit betting the U.S. would strike Iran by February 28. One account called “Magamyman” turned roughly $87,000 into more than $515,000. Some of those shares were purchased for around a dime apiece, hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran.
Senator Chris Murphy called it “insane this is legal” and announced legislation to ban the practice. Representative Mike Levin noted that Donald Trump Jr. sits on Polymarket’s advisory board and his firm invested double-digit millions into the platform last year. The Justice Department and the CFTC both had active investigations into Polymarket. Both were dropped after Trump took office.
Sources say a celebrity tabloid reported that a group at a Washington, D.C. restaurant was openly discussing the imminent bombing of Iran in a bar area the Friday afternoon before the strikes. One journalist who flagged the story noted it raises the possibility that these bets could have been placed by “any rich person with good ears in D.C.” There is no confirmed evidence that administration officials were behind the wagers. But the circumstantial picture is striking. Rich people. Good ears. A million-dollar Mar-a-Lago fundraiser. A war that started that same night.
Ask yourself who knew, and who is sitting on $515,000 they didn’t have last Thursday.
If people with access and privilege can quietly profit from the outbreak of war, then we are confronting a level of corruption that strikes at the heart of the American experiment. A democracy cannot endure when public decisions about life and death are shadowed by private bets and insider advantage.
That is your Raw America briefing. We will keep bringing you the voices the billionaire-owned press would rather you ignored, including the kind of exclusive access to military leaders like Major General Paul Eaton that we delivered right here two days ago. The corporate networks are waving the flags and cheering the missiles. We’ll keep asking who ordered the war, who knew it was coming, and who is paying the price.
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STORIES YOU MAY HAVE MISSED:
Hegseth Stumped When Asked About Iran Exit Strategy. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was unable to answer reporters’ questions during a Monday press conference about the US timetable for leaving Iran. He also refrained from laying out rules of engagement, and didn’t rule out the deployment of U.S. troops on the ground and only said the administration would “go as far as we need to go to advance American interests.”
Fourth U.S. Service Member Dies Following Iran Counterattack. U.S. Central Command has confirmed that a fourth American service member has died in the wake of Iran’s latest counterattack in response to the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Joint Chief of Staff Chairman Dan Caine said the U.S. expects “to take additional losses” during “major combat operations” in Iran. The troop’s name has not yet been released.
Democrats in Congress Prepare War Powers Resolution on Iran. Democrats in both the House of Representatives and U.S. Senate are now preparing votes on resolutions to officially reclaim the power over declaring war. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) is leading the push in his chamber, while Reps. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) — who also co-authored the Epstein Files Transparency Act — are authoring the House version. Kaine acknowledged there likely won’t be enough votes to overcome a presidential veto, but argued the resolution can still potentially “change behavior” with enough bipartisan momentum.
Oil Prices Rise After Iranian Attack on Saudi Facility. Iranian forces attacked Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil refinery overnight, leading to a rise in global oil prices. Ras Tanura processes an estimated 550,000 barrels of oil per day. Brent crude is currently trading at $79/barrel, which is a nine percent increase from Friday. Gas prices in the U.S. are expected to rise as a result of the attack.
Trump Cabinet Secretary’s Scandal Deepens. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer continues to battle allegations of corruption after a new report details allegations of misconduct in her office. Chavez-DeRemer is accused of spending taxpayer resources on frequent personal trips that her staff allegedly helped her frame as work-related. Her husband has also been banned from the Labor Department’s headquarters after he was accused of sexually assaulting multiple female staffers, and Chavez-DeRemer herself is alleged to have had an affair with a male staffer in her office.
